Despite being among the more affected provinces, the New Brunswick government has hesitated to introduce poverty reduction strategies that will have a real and lasting impact on residents. As section one of the report card demonstrates, people in the province are struggling. With a 2024 election on the horizon, parties will need to demonstrate that poverty reduction is a top priority.

Poverty overview

Roughly 11 per cent of people in New Brunswick live in poverty. This represents an increase of more than four percentage points in a single year between 2021 and 2022 (from 6.7 per cent to 10.9 per cent).

When asked about the importance of measures to reduce poverty, people in New Brunswick ranked school food programs and affordable childcare 8 and 9 percentage points higher than the rest of Canada, respectively.

Diving deeper, this is likely directly related to the provincial child poverty rate of 10.3 per cent (2021 census), which is significantly higher than the national rate of 8.5 per cent. Among households led by single mothers, poverty is also higher in New Brunswick than elsewhere in Canada, at 17.5 per cent versus 14.4 per cent, respectively.

The poverty rate among single parents overall is closely linked to housing costs, as single parents in the province are nearly three times as likely to spend more than 30 per cent of their income on rent and utilities than couples with children (10 per cent).

The Cost of Living and Affordable Housing

Between December 2022 and December 2023, the overall price of goods and services in New Brunswick increased 2.9 per cent, which is comparable with Canada as a whole, at 3.4 per cent. While this suggests that cost of living pressures may be easing faster in the province, this is not the case for all essential items.

When it comes to food, New Brunswick had the second-highest increase in cost (after Newfoundland and Labrador), at 6.9 per cent, while Canada as a whole was 5 per cent. This likely explains in part why the province has among the highest incidence of food insecurity in the country.

With this in mind, it is unsurprising that 78 per cent of New Brunswickers—9 percentage points higher than the national average—agree that reducing food costs is a very important issue.

Encouragingly, the cost of shelter in New Brunswick rose at a much slower rate than elsewhere in Canada: 3.1 per cent, which is half the national increase. However, this is likely a reflection of lower house prices and subsequently lower mortgage debts. Conversely, rent costs increased by 6.9 per cent year over year.

Overall, renters struggle much more with poverty than homeowners. In New Brunswick, over 60 per cent of food bank visitors live in rented accommodation, 31 per cent of people in the province are finding it hard to keep up with rising rents, and 59 per cent say that programs to reduce the cost of rent are very important (10 percentage points higher than the national average and the highest in the country).

Moreover, 60 per cent of residents say that programs to support affordable housing are very important to them (7 percentage points higher than the national average and the highest in the country).

Despite the data telling us that people in New Brunswick struggle deeply with housing, only around 4 per cent of households in New Brunswick live in core housing need, a rate that is close to half the national rate (7.2 per cent), despite an erosion in the number of rental units priced below $750 a month. Furthermore, there was a decline of nearly 40 per cent in the rate of core housing need among households that were renting between 2018 and 2021 (down to 9.5 per cent from 15.5 per cent), nearly three times faster than the national average.  

Poverty and Inequality in New Brunswick

Immigrants across the country face higher rates of poverty than non-immigrant groups. In New Brunswick, the poverty rates among immigrants are worse than the national average, particularly among recent immigrants, who face a 22 per cent poverty rate in New Brunswick compared to 16 per cent nationally. As immigration grows in the province, New Brunswick will need to find new strategies to help immigrants if they hope to prevent their poverty rates from rising.

The rate of poverty for racialized New Brunswickers was significantly higher (20.3 per cent) than the national rate (12.1 per cent) in 2021. In addition, the majority (76 per cent) of racialized individuals in New Brunswick were first-generation immigrants (born outside of Canada) who experienced a poverty rate of 23.4 per cent, which is higher than the Canada-wide rate of 14.1 per cent. 

Labour and Education

Youth aged 15–29 who are not in employment, education, or training (NEET) are at particular risk of poverty. In 2022, 15 per cent of youth in New Brunswick were in this situation compared with 11 per cent in Canada as a whole. As New Brunswick is home to an aging population, it is critical that the province reduce this rate and ensure that young adults are entering the workforce.

Notably, minimum wage seems to be a large concern for New Brunswickers, with 54 per cent of residents stating that increasing the minimum wage is important to them. This is 8 percentage points higher than the national average. 

In 2020, New Brunswick committed to reducing poverty by at least 50 per cent by 2030, mirroring the Federal Government’s target. Although it temporarily achieved this goal during the pandemic, thanks in part to Federal COVID-19–related income support from, the province has not made enough effort in the last two years to protect this progress from eroding. Instead, the New Brunswick continues to rely heavily on initiatives that were put in place in the early days of the pandemic, which indexed social assistance benefits and minimum wage rates.

Over the past two years, New Brunswick has experienced a historic increase in its population. Between 2021 and 2023, from other parts of the country and from outside of Canada. The population growth in that two-year period was greater than the total growth over the preceding 29 years. This unprecedented increase in population has spurred significant economic activity and tax revenues, giving the provincial budget a surplus of $1 billion last year, up from $777 million compared to the year before. Much of this surplus is being used to cut taxes and pay down the debt, rather than being reinvested in critical services, support, and infrastructure. The latest provincial budget forecasts a much smaller surplus of $41 million, but history would suggest it will likely be much higher.

The population boom has also placed considerable strain on the housing stock. Last year we recommended that the province accelerate housing construction to 500 units per year, with a goal of building 2,500 units of affordable housing by 2025 to address the significant decline in affordable housing stock across the province.

While construction has begun on more than 8,500 new units over the past two years, the rate of construction has not kept pace with the population growth. If this situation is left unaddressed, it could undermine New Brunswick’s progress on housing affordability and lead to rent increases for people with fixed incomes who are already vulnerable to housing insecurity. The province has also resisted advocacy efforts to reinstate the rent cap that was introduced during the pandemic. Instead, it has opted for an aspirational target that would see rent increase by no more than 2.5 per cent per year, a goal that was not achieved last year.

The latest provincial budget includes some notable new investments in affordable housing, building on the creation of a Rent Bank which helps with targeted rent supplements to prevent eviction as well as the introduction of direct-to-tenant subsidy for low-income seniors. The province expects to invest a very modest amount of about $30 million to support a variety of initiatives for repairs and construction, although the impact on speeding up new development is unclear and potentially minimal in the short-term.

In 2023, the province introduced a new housing strategy that includes additional investments in affordable housing construction, as well as the creation of a modest provincial portable housing benefit and a rent bank. However, the new strategy commits to building only 800 units over the next three years, which falls far short of what is needed.

The creation of a portable rent supplement is a worthy and constructive step and builds on best practices in other jurisdictions, such as Manitoba and British Columbia. While the benefit has yet to be introduced, it will be important to ensure that it is broadly available to residents who have low incomes. The proposed Direct to Tenant Rental Benefit is intended to assist up to 3,000 households annually, with $22 million in support. Although it is helpful, it is nonetheless still a modest level of support.

In response to the current cost-of-living crisis, the province recently introduced a $300 one-time payment for households with low incomes called the New Brunswick Workers Benefit. This partly responds to a recommendation we made last year that the province enhance and make permanent its Emergency Food and Fuel Benefit. However, the New Brunswick Workers Benefit is only available to residents who have a family working income of at least $3,000 per year, which effectively excludes people who are most vulnerable and/or on extended social assistance. The province also increased the Low-Income Seniors Benefit from $400 to $600. This benefit is primarily designed for seniors with low incomes who already receive the federal Guaranteed Income Supplement or allowance payments for widows.

New Brunswick has a provincial election this fall. It is imperative that all parties prioritize poverty reduction efforts in their campaign platforms to demonstrate widespread support for the end of systemic poverty.

Poverty Reduction

The province must take advantage of the significant increase in public revenues it has received over the last two years and invest in a more ambitious plan as part of a revised poverty reduction strategy. This strategy should be tabled within 120 days of the next provincial government being sworn in.

Despite the province having accumulated nearly $2 billion in surpluses over the last two fiscal years, residents have not benefited from a significant reinvestment in services and support. The province should ensure that a minimum of one-third of any future surplus is dedicated to efforts to reduce poverty, build affordable housing, and support the creation of good jobs.

As part of the proposed new poverty reduction strategy, we call on the next provincial government to prioritize reducing child poverty, particularly among single parents, and seniors’ poverty, particularly among those who live alone. This could be addressed by introducing the following measures: a. Expanding eligibility for the Low-Income Seniors Benefit to all seniors in the province who receive the federal GST Credit. b. Introducing a provincial supplement to the Canada Child Benefit (CCB), to help support low-income households that receive the maximum federal credit. This could be modelled on Nova Scotia’s highly successful child benefit program.

Affordable Housing

While the provincial housing strategy sets a notional target maximum rent increase of 2.5 per cent, it has no backing in law or policy. This is especially troubling in the context of rising housing demand because of a massive influx of new residents.

This program should target the construction of a mixture of affordable private and public market housing units, with the goal of building 3,000 units over the next three years—almost quadruple the existing level of effort from the provincial government.

Education and Decent Work

New Brunswick has one of the lowest levels of post-secondary education attainment in Canada, and the second-highest rate of youth aged 15–29 who are not in education or training or looking for work/working (NEET). This would bring New Brunswick closer into line with neighbouring Quebec and PEI.

As part of the proposed youth employment strategy, New Brunswick should consider adopting a version of a refundable tax credit for households with low incomes, modelled on the enhanced Low-Income Workers Tax (LIFT) credit proposed for Ontario. In light of the need to build additional housing capacity quickly, New Brunswick should introduce an apprenticeship award to provide several thousand dollars in bonuses to youth who were not previously working or in training and have returned to school to learn a trade. This should also be made generally available for people who are receiving provincial social assistance and are transitioning into a trade, and would provide a top-up equivalent to approximately six months on benefits.

Income Support

Given the difficulties with implementation, and the continuing pressures on residents with the rising cost of living, we recommend the province focus on enhancing the adequacy of social assistance. Despite recent gains because of indexation, social assistance rates in New Brunswick remain among the lowest in the country.